Terrorism threat level: probable

In August 2024, ASIO raised the terrorism threat level to probable, indicating more than 50% chance of planning or attacks. Factors such as international conflicts, elections, and other terrorist activities contribute to this elevated threat level. The war in Gaza has led to a rise in anti-Semitic incidents in Australia and has the potential to influencing extremist violence. Global elections, including in the US, could trigger civil unrest and divisive discourse that aggravate existing social tensions in Australia. Over the longer-term, the 2032 Olympics may increase Australia’s attractiveness as a target for both domestic and international terrorists.

ASIO has observed a shorter path to radicalisation making it more challenging to identify and disrupt terrorist planning than in the past. The threat is also changing with younger suspects and the emergence of male supremacy as an ideology linked with terrorism abroad. The threat in Australia also comes from religious, nationalist, racist and politically motivated extremists. While radicalisation to the point of terrorism is rare, extremist ideologies can still impact society through less impactful physical and cyber attacks, espionage, insider sabotage, and hate crimes. A response to the terrorist threat level should be taken within a holistic approach to physical, personnel and information security. Underlying drivers of terrorism may manifest anywhere in a spectrum of violence from interpersonal conflict in the workplace to attacks on critical infrastructure.

Want to know more?

Email me at nicole.lott@decidingedge.com.au and I will send you the presentation slides from a recent webinar I delivered for the Risk Management Institute of Australia.